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 | | The New Financial Order: Risk in the 21st Century by Robert J. Shiller ISBN-10: 9780691120119 ISBN-10: 0-691-12011-0 ISBN-13: 9780691120119 ISBN-13: 978-0-691-12011-9 Paperback 2004-07-06 Princeton University Press Find Lowest Price |
Editorials | ||
Product Description In his best-selling Irrational Exuberance, Robert Shiller cautioned that society's obsession with the stock market was fueling the volatility that has since made a roller coaster of the financial system. Less noted was Shiller's admonition that our infatuation with the stock market distracts us from more durable economic prospects. These lie in the hidden potential of real assets, such as income from our livelihoods and homes. But these ''ordinary riches,'' so fundamental to our well-being, are increasingly exposed to the pervasive risks of a rapidly changing global economy. This compelling and important new book presents a fresh vision for hedging risk and securing our economic future. Shiller describes six fundamental ideas for using modern information technology and advanced financial theory to temper basic risks that have been ignored by risk management institutions--risks to the value of our jobs and our homes, to the vitality of our communities, and to the very stability of national economies. Informed by a comprehensive risk information database, this new financial order would include global markets for trading risks and exploiting myriad new financial opportunities, from inequality insurance to intergenerational social security. Just as developments in insuring risks to life, health, and catastrophe have given us a quality of life unimaginable a century ago, so Shiller's plan for securing crucial assets promises to substantially enrich our condition. Once again providing an enormous service, Shiller gives us a powerful means to convert our ordinary riches into a level of economic security, equity, and growth never before seen. And once again, what Robert Shiller says should be read and heeded by anyone with a stake in the economy. | ||
Reviews | ||
Extremely complex in its theory, but well worth the effort Robert J. Shiller proposes the use of mass insurance policies to cure many of society's ills. Think he's crazy? Read the book and judge for yourself. The author makes alot more sense than you might think at first blush. | ||
The problem is ambiguity and uncertainty,not risk alone The major problem with this book is Shiller's basic misconception of what the major problem is concerning decision making about the future ,given the incomplete amount of relevant information available in the past and the present,based on what D.Ellsberg called ambiguous probabilities, J M Keynes called probabilities with low weight(uncertainty),and Benoit Mandelbrot called wild risk(as opposed to the mild risk of the normal probability distribution).Shiller bases his understanding on the "new"behavioral economics associated with the work of Tversky,Kahneman,Thaler,etc.This kind of approach emphasizes not the major problems of ambiguity,uncertainty,or wild risk of Ellsberg,Keynes,and Mandelbrot,but relatively mild problems associated with the Allais Paradox(certainty,reflection,translation,and preference reversal effects plus other assorted anomalies).The problem is that the Tversky-Kahneman approach ,and other associated approaches allied with them, are based fundamentally on the view that the normal distribution is the correct distribution to use for educated,rational decision makers.The problem ,then,is that decision makers in general are not rational;they are irrational and uneducated decision makers ,who allow their emotions,combined with their hopes and fears,to influence their decision making .All the anomalous behavior can be traced to the basic irrationality and ignorance of decision makers,who supposedly resort to all kinds of heuristic shortcuts because they have not mastered the fields of statistics and probability correctly.The position of Ellsberg,Keynes,and Mandelbrot is completely different.The decision maker is rational,but must "rely" on probabilities that he knows are unreliable,vague,ambiguous,unclear,and uncertain.In such a world the attempt to gain additional information,as in the stock market,leads to herd,crowd,and cascade effects as each individual decision maker attempts to obtain a little, additional amount of relevant information from other sources that he feels are better informed.Thus,it is the ambiguity or uncertainty of the future that leads to the creation of bubbles,manias,panics,and crashes.These events have little to do with the Tversky-Kahneman approach.The normal probability distribution is completely worthless as a guide to action in the stock market and other financial markets in the face of ambiguity ,uncertainty,or wild risk.In his preface(pp.ix-x),Shiller claims that"...economic thinkers have been limited by the state of relevant risk management principles of their day".Shiller claims that Keynes did not have command of such risk management ideas.The fact is that Keynes,Ellsberg,and Mandelbrot have forgotten more about these ideas than Shiller will ever know.All seven of Shiller's new types of markets and new types of insurance totally ignore the fundamental problem of ambiguity/uncertainty.They are put forth in the misbelief that the kind of decision making problems examined by Tversky-Kanheman are the main explanation for the boom-bust nature of financial markets , the volatility that results,and the unstable nature of such markets in a capitalist system.Shiller needs to completely rewrite this book and base it on a foundation of Keynes,Ellsberg,and Mandelbrot. | ||
Good for a Laugh What an odd book. Shiller reviews the up-sides of multiple forms of insurance without a thought to the down-sides. How much would being insured for every possible eventuality cost the user? At times, I tended to agree with the reviewer quoted on the back cover -- 'pleasantly utiopian'. At other times, I more agreed with my father, who said, after I read aloud a passage about the draconian surveilance measures needed to enforce some of the insurance contracts Shiller advocates: 'He's a very bad man.' | ||
Interesting read, author is quite optimistic. This book is very interesting, but I think that the author in may be a bit full of himself. This is the same guy who wrote the book 'Irrational Exuberance' months after the stock market peaked in January 2000 and claims to have predicted it. I feel that most of the hype about Robert Shiller is Irrationally Exuberant. However this does not mean this book is not worth looking at. It has some interesting proposals, although many of them are either far-fetched or dangerously close to a creating a corporate Orwellian state. | ||
A fascinating alternative view of the financial system Shiller is a visionary economist. The problem with visionaries is that they do not always see the world the same way as everyone else. This book outlines how Shiller believes a range of innovative risk management products could change the international financial system, and at the same time raise the living standards of ordinary people. Shiller wants to create derivative products which would allow people to use financial markets to hedge against loss of income, or the decline in the value of their house, for example. Now this is pretty daunting stuff for the average reader, and I doubt that most of the people Shiller wants to help would fully appreciate the complexities of the things he advocates. The other problem I have is that I simply don't believe all of Shiller's ideas are feasible. Moreover, even he would have to admit it is impossible to eliminate risk from life, yet that is what he tries to achieve. I think it is a terrific book for those who want to ponder "what if." It can be a hard read though. | ||