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A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street

by Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay

ISBN-10: 9780691057743
ISBN-10: 0-691-05774-5
ISBN-13: 9780691057743
ISBN-13: 978-0-691-05774-3
Hardcover
1999-01-11
Princeton University Press


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Editorials


Product Description
For over half a century, financial experts have regarded the movements of markets as a random walk--unpredictable meanderings akin to a drunkard's unsteady gait--and this hypothesis has become a cornerstone of modern financial economics and many investment strategies. Here Andrew W. Lo and A. Craig MacKinlay put the Random Walk Hypothesis to the test. In this volume, which elegantly integrates their most important articles, Lo and MacKinlay find that markets are not completely random after all, and that predictable components do exist in recent stock and bond returns. Their book provides a state-of-the-art account of the techniques for detecting predictabilities and evaluating their statistical and economic significance, and offers a tantalizing glimpse into the financial technologies of the future.

The articles track the exciting course of Lo and MacKinlay's research on the predictability of stock prices from their early work on rejecting random walks in short-horizon returns to their analysis of long-term memory in stock market prices. A particular highlight is their now-famous inquiry into the pitfalls of "data-snooping biases" that have arisen from the widespread use of the same historical databases for discovering anomalies and developing seemingly profitable investment strategies. This book invites scholars to reconsider the Random Walk Hypothesis, and, by carefully documenting the presence of predictable components in the stock market, also directs investment professionals toward superior long-term investment returns through disciplined active investment management.


Reviews


No for newbies
I bought this book because it provider a counterpoint to Random walk down wall street. This book is full of mathematical models and stats. Dont buy this if u just want a general investment book. Go with "A random walk down walk street"

hardly read it
I picked up this book to try to get some background on arguments for and against random walk. Maybe this book has that. I don't know. I have a B.S. in Math and I don't want to go back to school for two years to understand this book.

The book is a bunch of math, that's it. If you're looking for a higher level, "semi-technical" discussion this isn't it.

If you want to sit down with a nice cup of tea and enjoy some graduate level statistics, then go ahead and get it.

not for those of limited intellect
There is no indication anywhere that this book was intended
either as a follow on to Burton Malkiel's A Random Walk Down
Wall Street or as a primer for day traders. Hence it is
rather disappointing to read the reviews of those who
somehow managed to reach one of the preceding conclusions.

Several statistical studies have made it clear that the
markets are not completely random as asserted by much of the
academic economics community. It is impossible to prove or
refute the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, because, as Farmer
puts it, the EMH, by itself, is not a well-posed and
empirically refutable hypothesis. This book tries to
rigorously analyze the markets as they are.

The average investor could easily reach the same conclusions
as Burton Malkiel strives for, namely that he is best off
investing in an index fund. However, they do it in a more
interesting fashion than simply asserting that, on average,
one cannot beat the average.


A bit technical
After reading A Random Walk, I was expecting another easy, entertaining read. This turned out to be much more technical. Even with a fairly strong statistics background, I still got lost. The style is much more dry. It's not written for the general public like A Random Walk is.

Excellent Econometric Analysis for the Right Audience
This is a book about financial economics, not day-trading. The techniques used is advanced econometric analysis, not technical charting. The purpose is to clarify some common myth about efficient market theory and the random walk hypothesis, not to show one how to pick stocks. Just like the authors' other book ("Econometrics of Financial Markets"), this one is of the highest high quality, and does a superb job on what it set out to be.

Some readers seem to be disappointed at this book by naively assuming what the title implies, as shown by some of the reviews here. They really can't blame anyone but themselves. Just because Burton Malkiel's classic didn't show us how to day trade doesn't mean a book with the opposite title will do so, nor did the authors ever claim that, either.



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